How to wade through the trade deadine rumors as a Sabre fan

The NHL trade deadline is a month away, with a 2 week freeze for the Olympics, or as I call it secret trade time. And the rumor boards and messageboards will be blowing up with what the Sabres should do, who they are linked to and what not. But for the smart Sabre fan, you can make the time a little less stressful and worrisome, by following the typical modus operandi of one Darcy Regier.

1. Darcy will not overpay, in value or dollar wise.

The Sabres aren't cheap, to counteract the typical opinion of dumb average Sabre fan who couldn't budget out of a paper bag, in fact they are near the cap and don't have a lot of wiggle room. So any trade will have to be dollar for dollar, or a value player that fits the "system". Darcy would never go after a Kovolchuk or Souray. Players that don't pull their contract. Briere and Drury are perfect examples. Guys he got great value from, till they were overpriced now burdens to their respective teams. In the Stock market you would be called a genius, for buying low and selling high, but in Sports you're called Cheap.

2. Darcy will not Panic

Just because others are making deals, doesn't mean you have to. Right now big deals are happening. Great, good for the Leafs and Devils. The Sabres don't need to do anything right now. They could, but it's not necessary. They made a cap room deal already in shipping out Dan Paille. Right now is the time to see what you need to make a run to the Cup. During the break, do some analysis, make some calls and go from there. If you can't get what you want, just go with what you have. But do not panic and make a deal that could hurt the organization in the long run.

3. If you hear anything it will not happen

If you read something about a Sabre going somewhere for something, you can GUARANTEE it won't happen. He wants total secrecy and zero leaks. Notice no one in the Buffalo media has any idea EVER about what the Sabres will do. Darcy is very close to the vest and if any GM wants something from the Sabres, they have to keep their trap shut. So forget rumor sites, only if you want to find out who maybe out there. Otherwise they are no good for Sabre fans.

4. Any player from Buffalo or who played here will be linked to the Sabres.

With the Leafs purge, you'll see Stempniak linked to the Sabres about 40 times. He's not coming here. (goes to nhlnumbers.com) Makes 3.5 million this year and a UFA. And has 13 goals. Umm no. The only player that came back after playing here recently was Mike Grier, who was the last person, we'd thought come back. Buffalo fans like to get back what we know, because we're too lazy to do any research. Raffi Torres? Who's that? Columbus? They have a team? How many times have we heard the name Michael Peca and the Sabres at the deadline over the years.

Andrew Ladd, now we are talking. 11 goals, making 1.65 Million and a RFA. Playoff experience, was on a Cup winner.

5. Darcy will not settle.

Here's where Darcy gets criticised a lot. The old not getting anything for them routine. Darcy won't just trade a player to get something because they are leaving. I'm sure he tried his best to dump Max and Kalinin over the years, but nobody would offer something decent in return. So he kept them and got what he could out of them. Its like a car, you can't get a good trade in value so you just run it into ground.

He got a 2nd round pick for Alex Kotalik! Which was turned over to get Dominic Moore. Yikes. Well at the time it looked good. Who knew he was hurt?

Hasek and maybe Campbell are the few trades you can say he settled or got nothing for something. But really what did the Sharks get out of that Campbell trade?

6. Don't expect anything big

The trade deadline isn't the time where Darcy makes his big moves, he saves that for the offseason. Here he tinkers, acquires the Danius Zubrus' of the world (ZUBAZ!!!) He has the team he wants in place, now is the time to make tiny adjustments. He won't be putting in a new engine, he'll just be changing the oil. And of course gets roundly criticized every year for it.

Darcy has his method, you can debate whether it works or not. But just a few pointers on how to survive the trade deadline period, without getting too high or too down.

Wednesday recap

(Mark Mulville)

The Secret to Patrick Lalime's recent good play

Mind Control

Well the Sabres had quite the busy Wednesday. First they resign Tim Connolly to a new 2 year deal. Then bring in another goaltender to give Portland a goaltender and give Lalime a break on Friday. So they bring in a solid 2nd goaltender who can start and not totally embarrass himself, in Mikael Tellqvist. Who is probably around for a couple weeks, and when Miller comes back, is probably here for practice. Especially if they make the playoffs. That sucks for him, but I'm sure he'll find a team in the offseason. But welcome to Buffalo Mikael.

And from noon to 3pm, we all thought the Sabres were done, then the rumor of a deal. Then it appeared on the internet, and then it was official. The Sabres picked up the scoring center they needed. They traded Ales "backhand in the shootout" Kotalik for a 2nd round pick, and then they turned that into Dominic Moore, who the Leafs couldn't sign.

Dominic Moore comes in as the Sabres 4th highest scorer. 4th! He has 12 goals on the year, and is a -1, which on the Leafs is like being a +20 on the Detroit Red Wings. More points then Kotalik and tougher. Then the off and on winger who is bad in his own zone. Who I never knew why nobody wanted to ever trade him. He just seemed overpaid to me and really didn't give everything to the team.

And what number are they giving Dominic Moore? 23. Thats bold, I bet that will make Bucky upset since thats his precious Drury's number. And Bucky probably will lead the charge to get it retired and in the rafters soon.

Bucky "Connolly likely to be traded" Gleason. The article you can't find on the News website anymore. Ooo, no it was moved to Archives. Really 1 day old and moved to Archives. mmmm.

Several NHL sources in recent days have suggested that center Tim Connolly has almost no intention of re-signing with the Sabres, regardless of what he has told the organization or relayed to the media. It appears the Sabres have almost no choice but to trade him before 3 p.m. today.

Who Eklund?

With that and the Biron idea. Bucky sure came out looking terrible. It just looks he has no clue whats happening inside the Sabres. And of course today he slams the Connolly deal. What would you expect? Along with Jerry "Suddenly interested in the Sabres" Sullivan.

Thats too much money for a injured player. Blah blah Blah. How about looking into the facts. With stats and what other players in his point totals get? Then judge.

Wait thats what bloggers do? So lets take a peak. Our friend who runs www.nhlnumbers.com, will help us?

We''ll take Tim Connolly since the lockout.

Prior to the lockout he played in 80 games 4 straight years. So his injury problems, really has only started since the Schaefer hit in the 2006 playoffs. But his point totals weren't as impressive.

2005-2006 63 games 55 points
2006-2007 2 games 1 point
2007-2008 48 games 33 points
2008-2009 30 games 27 points

That's about a .8 points per game player. Multiply that versus 82 games and thats about 66 points per season. Which isn't too bad. But when he's healthy and not fighting injuries. I'd say he's more a .9 point a game player. So 66 to 75 points a year. Who else is in that camp and what do they make?

Olli Jokkinen in the past few years is in that range, he makes 5.25

Danny Briere was in that boat last year and he makes 8

Paul Statsny will be making 6.6 Million over the next few years

Rick Nash makes 6.5 and 7 million next year. (Then a UFA) He has Leaf written all over him.

Scott Gomez will be making 8 million over what seems the next decade.

BTW the Rangers are screwed next year, almost 23 million is tied up in 4 forwards. Drury, Gomez, Naslund and Avery. Thats probably half the cap. 40 million total tied up, with 19 UFA or RFA's on their roster. Good luck John Tortorella!

As you can see, its not a bad deal, if Connolly returns to his former healthy self.

---------------------------

Oh and there was a game as well, where the Sabres broke a 3 game slump, and a scoring drought, by beating up on the Habs 5-1. Since January 1st the Sabres are 7-1-1 against Northeast division opponents. So they are taking care of their division. Now they just have to worry about the divisons, because they have to crawl back into the playoff standings. Only 4 points out of 5th place. And honestly I don't see the Rangers hanging on, and the Canes are in trouble. The Sabres made some good solid moves yesterday, and with the return of Vanek. It should boost them enough, till Miller comes back. But if Lalime keeps playing like he is. Miller can take his time.

There are plenty of games left. But now is the time for the Sabres to peak. Having a slump at the end of February, early March is ok. But now they have to win 65% of their games, if they want to play in April and May.

The least anticipated trade deadline in Sports.

The NFL trade deadline, might be the only thing in the NFL that doesn't get anyone pumped up. Free Agency, the Draft, training camp. But compared to Baseball, Hockey and even the NBA. The NFL trade deadline comes and goes every year and no one blinks an eye. Is it because its too early in the season? Why is it in Mid October? What if it were in November, would more deals get done? Is it because people have to learn new systems and its a waste? Cap issues? I have no idea. But Tony Gonzalez and maybe Roy Williams are the big objects possibly up for trades.

The Bills are rumored to be one of the suitors for Tony Gonzalez and it looks like a 3rd is the price to pay. I'm sorry but a 3rd for a Hall of Famer who will only help the team and is under contract for several years. Its a deal I would do. He's not a head case, he's a great teammate, he just wants to win and Kansas City won't be winning anytime soon. He has given a lot to the Chiefs and its nothing personal. He would upgrade the Offense overnight. Lee Evans and Parrish would be better. Lynch would probably get better running lanes, with teams scared of Gonzalez. And Trent is accurate and needs a TE like Tony.

But the big thing is, the Bills are looking to get better. They are in the rumors. Isn't that great for once? The team is trying to be in the thick of things. I guess we can just hope that Tony Gonzalez is a Bill at the end of the day. But the Bills will not overpay. They covet draft picks and don't just give them away. They might trade a pick for Gonzalez and then trade a player like Crowell or McCargo for another pick.

Or they might do nothing and go with who they have. Bills Fans were pretty happy before we heard about the Gonzalez's trade wish. But we always want the Bills to be better. And Gonzalez would make the Bills better.

Hello Bernier!

#56 in your Program

So its a few minutes left for the trade deadline, and it looks like the Campbell deal maybe the only one today. Really which I can understand, Kotalik and Kalinin you would like to trade. But honestly, they are a dime a dozen. You might be able to get draft picks or a prospect. But if you don't get the prospect you want, no point in making the trade. Plus you can sign Kalinin probably at a cheap rate. You give him a long term deal say 5 year at 3.5 or 4 million, he'd take that. You get a defenseman who can play like a 8 million dollar player or a 1 million dollar player. Plus by acquiring a cheap talent like Bernier, you create cap space for a Miller extension and go out and buy a couple players that fit the mold the Sabres are trying to fill. Thats physical two way players.

60 minutes of Hell, thats what I would want from the Sabres. Teams that can't take a break against them. You don't know what line to shut down, because every line could produce or be noticed. But who does Bernier play with? Gaustad?

Hecht Pominville MacArthur

Connelly Roy Vanek

Gaustad Kotalik Bernier

Kaleta Mair Ryan

But Stafford and Max are coming back soon. So Lindy will have some options at the forward corp when they get healthy. But really Darcy brought in the right player the Sabres need. Young, big, and physical.

The Trade Deadline

I love the trade deadline. Hell I love trades. All the rumors, all the deals. Its like christmas in a way. New guys and new hope. No more talk about a certain guy that wears #51. The man above has a history of great deals and fleecing people. This year he has one of the most sought after assets. And could really shape the future of the Sabres. A player with a couple years on their contract, prospects, picks. This team isn't going anywhere, he knows it, he won't say it, but he knows talent and intangibles. He gave them most of the year to show themselves, now he has a phone to change things up.

People run Darcy all the time. The man who brought in Drury, Briere, Dumont, Lydman, Grier, Zubrus. Drury was in no mans land in Calgary and brought him in for basically nothing. Gave him the opportunity to succeed and make a ton of money. The same for Danny Briere. Briere was a nobody. He got traded for Chris Gratton! Now he makes 10 million dollars this year. Its been a few years since Darcy's been able to resurrect someones career. Theres a former captain in San Jose who is languishing in the shark tank. His confidence is down, his worth is down, and probably you can get more with him, just to take the contract off their hands. Plus he'll make your team better.

Darcy I have always had faith in you. Looking at your history. The best GM in Sabres History. Yes I just said it. People in this town want you fired, blaming you for certain things out of your control. I see the logic in not giving long term deals. But you changed, with deals on Roy and Hecht. Good, cheap two way players. Now Pominville is next. But here you can add to the team, and keep the fans excited, plus keep playoff hopes alive.

Darcy your move.

Enough

AHHHH GO AWAY!!!!!!

Ok thank god its the Trade Deadline tomorrow, because I have had enough of this Brian Campbell business. I don't want to hear about Brian Campbell, I don't want to see Brian Campbell or care about Brian Campbell anymore. Either trade him or sign him and then I don't want to hear about or from him for the rest of the year. I don't want to even hear the word Soup, for the fear it will remind me of Brian Campbell.

Brian Campbell was a low level non factor Defensemen till this moment.


Now hes a 2 time all star, and the type of defensemen you need on the team. How did someone go from barely a 6th defensemen to a all star? Now he wants to get paid like one. Sure he has great numbers this year, but its a contract year, those years don't count. Danny Briere has had 2 great years, both in contract years, now he has a long term deal and his numbers are slipping. Theres something about that security that makes a guy relax. But hey lets average out those numbers through the years and see where they are.

His first real year was 2002-2003
2002 to 2003 65 Games 19 points and -8
2003-2004 53 Games 11 points and -8
2005-2006 79 Games 44 points and -14
2006-2007 82 Games 48 points and +28
2007-2008 62 Games 44 Points and -4

Well he is a healthy player that is for sure, one of few defensemen to survive the 05-06 playoffs. Of course he shot the puck over the glass leading to the eventual defeat in Game 7 against Carolina. THATS RIGHT BRIAN I DON'T FORGET! But his ppg numbers have skyrocketed this year. From a average of .57 PPG, in the 2 post lockout years to a .71 PPG rate this year. And except for the unusual +/- in 06-07, he's a minus player. Even being a offensive defensivemen. Which means he'll create, but he'll also breakdown in his own zone. You can't have someone making 7 million on the backend, breaking down once or twice a game.

Basically, they need to trade him. They can't tie in salary to a small number of players and stay competitive. Trade Brian, get some stuff for the future. And move on. It will be tough, but it has to be done.

The walls came tumbling down

Not as bad as they say on the news.

Well this weekend happened for the Sabres. Where they lost a combined 9-2 and lost 4 crucial points in a playoff race. Lucky for them. Its not that bad. A bad stretch now isn't the end, but maybe its a call for a trade to show the Sabres are in need of forwards. They have a NHL caliber defenseman riding the pine, and Sekera or Weber at this point would play decent minutes. I'm rather high on Mike Weber actually. Though he is a -3 on the year in Rochester. Which looking at the numbers is pretty damn good for regulars. The Sabres next Brian Campbell, no not TJ Brennan, Marc Andre Gragnani is a -19, but hes second on the team in points! Give him 51, teach him a spin o rama move and a red wig, and we'd never know the difference. Man the Amerks are bad, Clarke Macarthur is 4th in points and he played half the games as the others.

Well offense, or lack there of, is the main reason why the Sabres are in 9th. They had such a great offense last year it covered up the fact they gave up to many goals. Now that extra goal is killing them, and if Ryan Miller wasn't having a career year, they'd be even worse. I.E. see when Thibault plays.

Thats why when you have a non Stanley cup team and assets that can possibly make you a better team next year. You need to make trades. Sabre fans will accept a first round exit, if they can see potential next year. Thats why holding Brian Campbell for a playoff run is a mistake. If you sign him and have him for the future, thats great, but not at 6 million. He isn't worth twice of what Tallinder is making. 5 years for 25 million is what I would sign him too. I would not go higher, you have Ryan Miller to sign. If you sign Campbell, you have to deal Kalinin, I'm sorry, but he's a 5th defenseman if not 6 right now, and a change of scenery would do him well. Max, Connolly, Kotalik should be available for those who want them for decent prospects.

I'm not one for making trade after trade, but I think Darcy needs to become that wheeler and dealer again. The Sabres aren't a threat, and its perfect for Darcy to rip someone off bad. Did you notice that San Jose was in NYC after the Sabres and the team Campbell is rumored to go to is the Sharks? And he went out and played like absolute crap. Maybe he does want to stay here and make more excessive sweating commercials.