Sifting through the wreckage

Well its now day 2 in NHL Free agency and the man above is the first Sabre signing of the new season, well outside the organization, and yes I said first. Because its not all about one day. Its a long process. There are deals to be made, plenty of talent out there still. Sure the Sabres might be out of the Orpik race, because they realize they aren't going to pay 5 million for a 3rd defenseman. He doesn't score, and really only has 1 good year, so why should he get that much money again? Sure he's a local kid, but maybe he doesn't want to play here? I still say Steve Montador would be a quality signing. The Sabres don't need a big name defenseman. They need depth. They have a top pair in Lydman and Tallinder. They had a off year, and they'll come back strong next year. What do I know about money know. This is what I said about Jeff Finger a couple days ago "Probably on the cheap side 1.5 to 2 million" THE LEAFS SIGNED HIM TO 4 years 14 million! Jeff welcome to the TO, prepared to get booed heavily.

Lets look through the TSN signing tracker and see the interesting items that pop out.

Tampa Bay has gone insane. Unless they are trying to fill out their lineup so their minor league team is better. But they are going to have some training camp issues for sure. And maybe a place to pick up some talent.

Michael Ryder for 4 million a year? Seriously Boston? That is a terrible signing and Michael Ryder isn't a 2 million a year player.

Mark Streit is off the market, good, hes garbage.

Rozsival signed for the exact amount I would predict, the 5 million a year.

Mike Commodore signed in Columbus. I think he likes playing in a no pressure market.

Ditto for Cory Stillman

Someone tell WGR Huet was signed for a little over 4 million a year, not 5. So don't worry about Ryan Miller, his price is the same. Overpaid.

The Coyotes are going to be decent next year. That Kurt Sauer signing is underrated and a bargain.

Brian Campbell? Good for him. Good town, hopefully he can lead the resurgence of the Hawks.

Plenty of good guys left, and I think Darcy is looking to deal and sign. He wants to create room first to bring in guys. I will be just as excited today to see what happens.

And Bucky?

Tampa Bay became a destination of choice because the Lightning took a proactive, aggressive approach into the offseason. They had more needs than the Sabres did, but they also wasted little time in addressing them. The Bolts made themselves attractive.

Nothing about Tampa is attractive, except for the weather. They are going to be bad next year because THEY HAVE NO DEFENSE. And they are looking to ship their best D-man. I seriously don't know what the Lightning are doing.

Lets do some guesstimating

I will be trying to assume the role of one Darcy Regier. Ohh look at him there, so happy. He loves the wheeling and dealing. He loves screwing around with the press. Its probably a good day for him. No superstars leaving. Maybe signing someone no one is talking about, because Darcy has less info leak then the CIA. So we gotta guess what the RFA's and the 1 to go UFA's might be getting. Well check out some stats, compare players and their salaries. And we can go from there.

First its Dan Paille.

Well Dan Paille finally emerged last year, due to the opportunities of others leaving and injuries. He had 19 goals and 35 points. Was good on the Penalty kill, and I like to think of him as Derek Roy Light. Not as good, not as flashy, but a guy you still need on the team on the 3rd checking line. He's probably a 15 to 25 goal scorer in the future, a guy thats dependable and only 24. So what should he be making?

Well I went with points instead of goals, because the numbers could flip flop. Mmm a guy like Craig Conroy is a good Dan Paille comparison. Though much older is only getting 1.1 a season from the flames. Matt Stajan is pretty close to Paille, he also is a RFA. If he goes, his deal will influence Paille and vice versa. Colby Armstrong another comparison is only at 1.2. But the Gaustad deal really throws out these lower deals out the window. Paille has better talent and will want a little more. Zubrus deal looks interesting (3.4 million over 6 years), similar stats, similar player but older, so you can cut off what Zubaz got on the open market and work out a deal like a 4 year 12 million contract for Paille.

1st year 2.5, 2nd year 2.5, 3rd year 3.5, 4th year 3.5. Will take him to 28 where he can test the open waters.

Steve Bernier

Tons of potential but still lacking the consistency. Really you can get this guy cheap. The numbers don't back up any major deal. And signing him to anything more then 3 years is a mistake. I won't look at similar players, because I have no idea who you can compare Bernier to. Wait I found it, Michael Ryder. Tons of potential, yet super disappointing. Bernier is much younger so the 3 million that Ryder got last year you can cut and put later in the deal.

So 3 years 8.5 million. 2 million this year, 3 million then 3.5 million.

Clarke Macarthur.

Really easy to sign, no one is coming after him, might even want to wait till arbitration on this one. Clarke has shown flashes, but the demotion to Rochester really stung any big contract for this year. If you can work it out. 2 years 2 million. .8 this year and 1.2 for next.

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Now the big ones.

Ryan Miller

This one is going to be big money. Say what you will but they gotta lock him up. Can't hope for Enroth, lock him up and front load it, so if you need to, make it easy to dump 4 years from now. He's not gonna get worse, he probably won't get that much better. So what is fair?

With wins hes in the top. GAA in the 20's. Sv% even worse. Really his numbers for last year aren't what will be used in the contract negotiation. Because he'd get 3 million a year. Darcy can't wait for the Huet deal. He might want to look at Lundqvist. Which is an interesting deal. Next year he gets 7.75, then its 6.85 then 7.75 again, then 6.85 for the final two years. I really don't think Miller can say hes better then King Henrik. But I'd front the deal. So a 5 year deal at 35 million.

1st year 7.5million, 2nd 7.5million, 3rd 8 million, 4th 6million, 5th 6 million

Sabre fans might gag at first, but its gonna have to be that high, to show you value him or he'll walk next year.

Jason Pominville

Unfortunately for the Sabres, Pominville had a breakout year last year, before they could give him the Roy deal. So for the bad timing, it will cost the Sabres, to keep one of their more important players.

Players to look at St Louis, Heatley, Doan, Savard and Mike Richards. (oh no) Those are guys all with huge deals, so the Sabres are going to have to break the bank for Pominville. Well it starts at 5 million per. He really is a good player that will get better. And if you want him to be the face or captain, you gotta pay him too.

6 years 36 million

6 million per year. I think thats a fair deal and a steal in 2 years.

Sabre fans tend to underestimate deals, all it takes is looking at the market and then adding to it. It is what it is, and its all we got.

Today should be fun though.

Getting Excited part 3

Well here we are at the final part of the Free Agency preview, and by that I mean players the Sabres may go out and sign. Thats why we did not mention Campbell or Hossa, and we won't mention Huet here either. So lets go into Goalies, which the Sabres need to sign.

Qualities- Cheap, trustworthy and able to stop pucks.

Jean Sebastian Aubin

Hey he and Ryan Miller could trade Your Momma jokes during long plane rides. That would be the only upside to signing Mr Aubin. A pretty average goalie in all ways. Below 500 record, a career 2.93 GAA and a .900 sv% and its gotten worse over the years.

Verdict: Your momma said you have a bigger 5 hole then she does.

Alex Auld

Was pretty terrible for the Panthers and Coyotes, before coming to Boston. Where his numbers were pretty good. 2.32 GAA and a .919 sv%. The Bruins game I went to had Alex Auld go and play out of his mind. My girlfriend (a former lacrosse goalie) was very impressed with his positioning. So hes big and has good training. Unfortunately the goalie market is piss poor. So he could get more then hes really worth. But hes my first choice.

Verdict: Yes, unless the bidding goes way too high.

Ray Emery

Umm, uhh no.

David Aebischer

A guy who lost a job to Auld and Tellqvist, waived, sent to the AHL, then Loaned to the Swiss League. I'm not sure if he wants to come back, but really his numbers aren't terrible and a guy on a 1 year deal looking to redeem himself, might be worthwhile. He would be cheap, and he has a history in the NHL. Since the lockout he has been average to bad, but a winter in the swiss league may have changed his outlook. Could be a very strong possibility.

Verdict: Not on any radar and could be had cheap.

Ty Conklin

Conk Block is not coming back, and he'll be too pricey now.

Curtis Sanford

Another one of those who? Goaltenders. But he was backing up Luongo in Vancouver after fizzling out in St Louis. Not terrible numbers, but nothing exciting. A guy you can have on the cheap and will fill in when necessary.

Verdict: Not my first choice, but if cost is a factor a possible signing.


Well a backup goalie signing isn't exciting news and won't be when the Sabres finally ink someone. But Sabre fans might have to get use to the fact that maybe the only signing outside the organization they make.

Getting all Excited part 2

Covering Defense in the first part was way more important then what we are covering now. The Sabres are heavy at forwards. Thats why I think trades are becoming a more possible solution then free agent pickups. Like going into the 2005-2006 season, signings were happening left and right and the Sabres only tinkered, they knew they had a good lineup and started the process years before. But they are at the point where they might have to do it again. Thats why Max, Ales and Timmy are probably out there to unload some salary to bring some fresh faces in. But, all 3 are UFA's next year. And my thought with UFA's are they are going to play balls out all year, to make bank next year. But trading one or two of them actually might be smart, so you "don't lose them for nothing", which is one my most hated phrases.

So who could be some forwards the Sabres target to fill out the lineup, say they create some room. Characteristics, experience, skill and leadership abilities. Oh yeah and not expensive.

Kevyn Adams

Why not lead it off with another local boy. Is good with the kids, and the Sabres are gonna be young again. So a cheap two way forward who would be good on the 4th line with Kaleta and Mair. Hasn't played a lot in the past few years, so there might be some tread on those tires. But he has been available for some years, and Sabres never seem to sniff around. Might be time to bring Kevyn home to end his career.

Verdict: A good depth forward, with a cup on his resume.

Michael Peca

Plenty of rumors out there he'd like to come back, but only if he takes a price cut. He isn't what he was when he was here a decade ago. Captain Crunch is a little soggy these days, with injury issues and lack of scoring. But could provide that grit and leadership the Sabres could use.

Verdict: If he'll take a Million, I'd think about it.

Stu Barnes

Another old Sabre, been here, so he might think of coming back. Still has some left in tank, and always could use a good 3rd line guy with him and Goose. I think Sabre fans could get behind the bringing back of Stu. I think he likes it in Dallas so I doubt he'd leave, unless they didn't offer him anything.

Verdict: Bring back Stu, if you can Darcy

Brendan Morrison

Probably on the too expensive side. But if Darcy wanted to bring in a big name, quality scorer, heres the guy I'd bring in. Good on the power play. Could slap him on the top line or 2nd line, dropping even more quality scoring onto lower lines. Become that every shift dangerous team they use to be.

Verdict: Never going to happen, but its fun to dream.

Cory Stillman

Now here is that vet forward the Sabres could use. Good on the power play, plenty of experience Cup experience. A guy that knows his role and is never really paid that much for the production he provides. A consistent 20 goal scorer, which the sabres could always need more of, and probably cheaper then Max.

Verdict: If they can get a 2 or 3 year deal at 2.5 per, I would go ahead and do it.

Pascal Dupuis

A guy that probably isn't high on any radar, but a good addition to any squad. More of a checking line forward, who is another penalty killer. Could be gotten I think for a Million per year.

verdict: Only if you can get cheap, otherwise a dime a dozen player. Dan Paille is probably a better Pascal Dupuis

Matt Cooke

Theres something I like about Matt Cooke, he can get in there and agitate, and if he were on the 4th line, I'd think it would add just a little extra offensive danger to Mair and Kaleta. He's getting 1.5 now, which maybe too much, but in the agitator market, maybe a deal compared to Avery.

Verdict: If stays at current salary, maybe a good option.

Owen Nolan

Older then dirt, been around forever. But yet has had double digits in goals the last two years. Probably great in the locker room. A guy that will play hungry. Don't have to sign him to a long deal which Darcy must love and will be a fan favorite.

Verdict: Won't happen, but one can hope.

Radim Vrbata

Emerged this year on the Coyotes in a contract year (Beware!) But had steady numbers before. Could be coming into his own right now, and probably a nice addition to Roy and Vanek. His price tag might be higher then thought, due to the forwards flying off the market. Probably will be too pricey and not the right player.

Verdict: Ain't gonna happen.

The forward market is top heavy and bottom heavy, deals can be had, but those middle line guys, like Stillman, could be more then thought. Teams have money and are willing to spend it. The Sabres would only need to pick up one cheap forward to add some more experience. But I wouldn't look to much action in this department.

Next Goalies.

This close to free agency

By the way weren't the sabres going to bring back the old whites this year? I haven't heard an update on this. I love the old whites and they looked great in the winter classic last year. So if they wear them for Northeast games at home, bonus. Its the only way I hit up a Bruins game. Anywho, on to free agency.

I wanted to start with what they have to pay for next year and work with what is supposed to be available, the old 50 million dollar cap. Which seems like a high number, I'm sure its the number they budgeted out. I saw something like this on the roost this morning and still want to push my thing forward. But I will include defensemen, a all in one package.

So lets take numbers from nhlnumbers.com
The Players under contract next season. And the ones I think will be playing in Buffalo

Vanek ------ 8 Million
Roy ------- 3.5 Million
Hecht ------ 3.8 Million (seriously?)
Max------- 3.5 Million (Got to go)
Connelly---- 3.5 Million (last year here)
Kotalik ----- 2.5 Million (I can live with that)
Pominville - 1.357 Million (absolute steal)
Stafford --- .984 Million
Mair ------- .750Million (worth every penny)
Peters ----- .550Million (has pictures of darcy)
Kaleta ----- .500 Million

Thats 28.94 Million in 11 forwards. With 4 RFA's and 1 UFA. Along with signed rookies.

Defense

Spacek ------ 3.5 Million
Lydman ----- 3.150 Million
Tallinder ---- 2.9 Million
Paetsch ----- .8 Million
Weber ------- .551 Million
Sekera ------ .659 Million (He also needs to be extended this year)

So thats 11.56 Million in 6 defensemen, who have legitimate shot to be on the team.

Miller -------- 3.5 Million

Ok lets add all these up. Thats 43.6 Million in tied up salaries. We got 6 Million to pay a couple forwards and free agents. That of course takes out trades. Trade Max for a prospect, that bumps up that total to 10 million. You give offers to Bernier, Gaustad and Paille. Macarthur isn't on the team and is in Portland next year. Unless he wows you. Mike Ryan walks or signs a minor league deal with the Pirates. Good for depth. Ok for Bernier. I'm thinking 1.75, Gaustad 1.75 and Paille is around 2.5. If Paille was a UFA maybe he'd get 4 million. So we got 6 million tied up there.

Leaving around 4 million for free agents. Including a backup goalie. Which is the perfect year, tons of depth, no spots. Goalies will take anything to stay in the NHL. Auld is my pick. He was impressive last year and can take spot duty.

I would love to see Orpik, but I don't see it. The Sabres have forward depth, but I really think they want they want the young kids to play in Portland for a while. Thats why getting a John Michael Liles makes sense. Hes the defensemen they need. And really isn't high on the market at the moment. Campbell is the defensemen people want. Making Liles 2nd tier and would look good with Spacek. With Sekera and Weber being the 3rd pair.

I think management wanted to give hope to the Sabre faithful with Free agent deals. But I think the trade market is where this team will get better. The glut of forwards really give them assets to work with. The talent in the defensive corp will come in the next few years. With Weber, Sekera, TJ Brennen and Myers.