An attempt to be humorous and logical about the Buffalo Sports Scene.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Lets do some guesstimating

I will be trying to assume the role of one Darcy Regier. Ohh look at him there, so happy. He loves the wheeling and dealing. He loves screwing around with the press. Its probably a good day for him. No superstars leaving. Maybe signing someone no one is talking about, because Darcy has less info leak then the CIA. So we gotta guess what the RFA's and the 1 to go UFA's might be getting. Well check out some stats, compare players and their salaries. And we can go from there.

First its Dan Paille.

Well Dan Paille finally emerged last year, due to the opportunities of others leaving and injuries. He had 19 goals and 35 points. Was good on the Penalty kill, and I like to think of him as Derek Roy Light. Not as good, not as flashy, but a guy you still need on the team on the 3rd checking line. He's probably a 15 to 25 goal scorer in the future, a guy thats dependable and only 24. So what should he be making?

Well I went with points instead of goals, because the numbers could flip flop. Mmm a guy like Craig Conroy is a good Dan Paille comparison. Though much older is only getting 1.1 a season from the flames. Matt Stajan is pretty close to Paille, he also is a RFA. If he goes, his deal will influence Paille and vice versa. Colby Armstrong another comparison is only at 1.2. But the Gaustad deal really throws out these lower deals out the window. Paille has better talent and will want a little more. Zubrus deal looks interesting (3.4 million over 6 years), similar stats, similar player but older, so you can cut off what Zubaz got on the open market and work out a deal like a 4 year 12 million contract for Paille.

1st year 2.5, 2nd year 2.5, 3rd year 3.5, 4th year 3.5. Will take him to 28 where he can test the open waters.

Steve Bernier

Tons of potential but still lacking the consistency. Really you can get this guy cheap. The numbers don't back up any major deal. And signing him to anything more then 3 years is a mistake. I won't look at similar players, because I have no idea who you can compare Bernier to. Wait I found it, Michael Ryder. Tons of potential, yet super disappointing. Bernier is much younger so the 3 million that Ryder got last year you can cut and put later in the deal.

So 3 years 8.5 million. 2 million this year, 3 million then 3.5 million.

Clarke Macarthur.

Really easy to sign, no one is coming after him, might even want to wait till arbitration on this one. Clarke has shown flashes, but the demotion to Rochester really stung any big contract for this year. If you can work it out. 2 years 2 million. .8 this year and 1.2 for next.


Now the big ones.

Ryan Miller

This one is going to be big money. Say what you will but they gotta lock him up. Can't hope for Enroth, lock him up and front load it, so if you need to, make it easy to dump 4 years from now. He's not gonna get worse, he probably won't get that much better. So what is fair?

With wins hes in the top. GAA in the 20's. Sv% even worse. Really his numbers for last year aren't what will be used in the contract negotiation. Because he'd get 3 million a year. Darcy can't wait for the Huet deal. He might want to look at Lundqvist. Which is an interesting deal. Next year he gets 7.75, then its 6.85 then 7.75 again, then 6.85 for the final two years. I really don't think Miller can say hes better then King Henrik. But I'd front the deal. So a 5 year deal at 35 million.

1st year 7.5million, 2nd 7.5million, 3rd 8 million, 4th 6million, 5th 6 million

Sabre fans might gag at first, but its gonna have to be that high, to show you value him or he'll walk next year.

Jason Pominville

Unfortunately for the Sabres, Pominville had a breakout year last year, before they could give him the Roy deal. So for the bad timing, it will cost the Sabres, to keep one of their more important players.

Players to look at St Louis, Heatley, Doan, Savard and Mike Richards. (oh no) Those are guys all with huge deals, so the Sabres are going to have to break the bank for Pominville. Well it starts at 5 million per. He really is a good player that will get better. And if you want him to be the face or captain, you gotta pay him too.

6 years 36 million

6 million per year. I think thats a fair deal and a steal in 2 years.

Sabre fans tend to underestimate deals, all it takes is looking at the market and then adding to it. It is what it is, and its all we got.

Today should be fun though.

1 comment:

Jennifer said...

Paille is good, but I don't think he's worth more than Goose. I've seen a lot more improvement in Goose this past season.

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Buffalo, NY, United States
A Stay at home dad, who has more hot takes then your average stay at home dad.