Bills Patriots Preview

Hey here we are Bills Pats on Sunday night. Who knew how excited this town would be for this game from a month ago. People have really turned on the Bills this year. Its like yeah, I forgot the Bills can excite the town again. Say things like hey that Jabari Greer, is pretty good. Earlier it would have been Jabari Greer? Who the fuck is that. The game got bumped to Primetime from its earlier start, probably since NBC want the Patriots and CBS was willing to let this one go, and probably wanted snow. Its November it'll snow right? (checks forecast) Nope, just cloudy and cold. Well the Patriots somehow always come off a bye week to play the Bills. Like they need to. But still Bills fans are hoping that miracles can happen and that the Bills can beat the Patriots on national TV. Along with the '72 Dolphins. Lets break this one down a bit.

Previous matchup

It was week 3 probably the low point of the year with a 38-7 beatdown by the Patriots at Foxboro. Losman got hurt on the first drive and Pozluszny was put down for the year. The Bills were outgained 485 to 195 in the game and Tom Brady had his way with the defense.

Some facts that make you go, oh boy
(taken from Patriots website)

• The Patriots have defeated the Bills 13 times in the last 14 games between the teams - a feat never before achieved in franchise history against any opponent.
• The Patriots defense has held the Bills to a touchdown or less in five of the last eight games between the teams.
• The Patriots have recorded 54 wins over the Bills, the most against any opponent.
• New England has won eight straight games against Buffalo and has swept the season series in each of the last three seasons.
• Bill Belichick holds a 13-3 career record against Buffalo, including a 13-2 record as head coach of the Patriots.

I knew things were bad, but not that bad of late against the Patriots. A touchdown or less in five of the last 8 games? Thats terrible. And this nugget. Tom Brady has thrown more TD's (25) against the Bills then any other opponent. Even more then the Jets? And this stat is amazing since it really debunks that soft California QB myth.

Tom Brady is 21-2 as a starter when the temperature is less than 40 degrees.

Some one pray it warms up.

Major Injury News

Well we all know Marshawn Lynch won't be playing for the Bills on sunday, unless divine intervention steps in, ankle sprains are a bitch. And Kiwaukee Thomas is gone for the year, putting another guy on the IR, I'm pretty sure its 100 players at this point.

For the Patriots, G Stephen Neal and S Eugene Wilson are out. Mike Vrabel is questionable and Tom Brady is probable with a shoulder.

Statistical comparison time

The Patriots have the number 1 offense in the league and its not even close. Getting 428 ypg and scoring 39.4 ppg. Staggering numbers all across the board. And a +11 turnover margin

The Bills on the other hand are near the bottom at 31st. With 268 ypg and 15.9 ppg. But yet a +6 turnover margin. Probably the main reason why they are at 5-4.

The Patriots on the defensive side are 4th in the league with giving up 275.2 ypg and 16.3 ppg but 436 yards in penalties.

The Bills are slightly moving up the defensive category sitting at 28th. Giving up 359 ypg and 18.4 ppg, only have taken 357 yards in penalties. Their discipline is why they don't give up many points.

Anyway this is a statistical blowout for the Patriots.

Anything Else?

Well reading over pre game stuff on the Pats website, I came across this article. About the Pats preparing for 2 Bills QB's, like it really matters, but reading it, tells me they aren't doing that great of a job.

In the midst of a four-game winning streak, the Bills have looked good of late with both Edwards and Losman calling signals. On Thursday, Pats head coach Bill Belichick was asked how much different Buffalo’s offense is with the one player or the other. The perception being perhaps that Losman has the ability to throw deep more so than Edwards.

“No, I think Edwards has done a good job of going down there, too,” Belichick countered. “He, for example, hit them on that big play against the Jets, kind of won that game there in the fourth quarter, the 85-yarder.

Wait, wasn't that JP Losman? Looks up Youtube. Um yep, It was JP Losman not Edwards. The Patriots aren't preparing at all, its a big ruse. They are just gonna go out there thinking they are going to kick ass and take names later.

Interesting tidbit from Chris Brown's Tipsheet

Best advantage: Red zone offense - This might make someone scratch their head knowing Buffalo is 29th in the league in red zone offense, but New England ranks last in the AFC and is 31st in the NFL in red zone defense. The Patriots have allowed opponents to score touchdowns 66-percent of the time once they've penetrated their 20-yard line (14-21). Getting down there won't be easy, but the one time they did in the first meeting with the Pats, Buffalo punched it in for a touchdown.

Mmm, just drive the field and you'll have a good chance at scoring. Good thing the Bills put it in the..... oh nevermind.

Outlook

I don't see the Bills winning, really I don't. Especially if Marshawn Lynch isn't playing. They can open up the offense all they want, but the Patriots are a absolute buzzsaw. Losing to them is not a big deal. A loss here doesn't ruin playoff hopes. The bigger game is next week, against the Jags in Jacksonville. That game is HUGE. Its great to see the Bills on national tv, getting some good exposure, and if its close its gonna be a great thing to watch. But I say the Pats win this one 31-17.