An attempt to be humorous and logical about the Buffalo Sports Scene.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Instead of a preview

Thats the reason he's struggling, hes trying to play with his eyes closed

Well instead of a Sabres Sens Preview, mainly because its too painful to rehash what happened Tuesday, and I'd rather not talk about the Senators. We're gonna talk about a much debated topic. Ryan Miller's worth. We all know his contract status, he knows the contract status and the question is, how will it be dealt with.

There are a few options
1. Work out a new deal over the summer
2. Start talks about a new deal but leave it for the next year.
3. Just play out next year and see where things go
4. Trade him next year so you don't lose him for nothing
5. Let him walk next summer.

You can say sign him now, or wait or hes not worth what we think he wants. But you have to do comparisons to other goalies in the league to really get an idea of what he could be worth out there. Which has nothing to do with whether he deserves it, or what people think. If his numbers stack up to those around him making a certain amount, then to he should be paid that amount. The only way to go into these arguments is with numbers and rationality. Can't bring in opinion, though opinion can decide things.

Ryan Miller Career stats.

101-67-1-18 2.69 GAA and .908 SV%

Playoff stats

20-14 2.40 GAA and a .915 sv%

The win loss record is pretty good, but the individual numbers are pretty pedestrian. The win loss numbers can be associated with how talented the team has been the past 2 years. You could say they shielded Ryan Miller from a lot. The team hasn't been as good this year, so this year is a good comparison to the rest of the league. I hate to do this but we're gonna compare Ryan to Roberto Luongo. They both have been on the ice, the same amount and shots faced are pretty close. Ryan has played 3 more games so the average per game is pretty identical. And Vancouver is good, but not that good.

So lets compare.

Ryan Miller 33
Roberto Luongo 34

Shots against
Ryan Miller 1982
Roberto Luongo 1929

Ryan Miller 2.64
Roberto Luongo 2.29

Ryan Miller .908
Roberto Luongo .921

Ok hes nowhere near as good as Luongo who makes, 6.5 Million to 7 Million next year. So his argument for pay here, goes nowhere. I don't want to hear about Playoff performance. Luongos numbers from last years playoffs are unreal 1.77 GAA and a .942 Sv%. Hes way better then Miller and plays in a better conference.

So who does Miller stack up to? You can't just use a few numbers, you have to look at the whole body of work and shots and the team they play on. When you look at numbers, Ryan and Miikka Kiprusoft are pretty similar.

Ryan Miller 33
Miikka Kiprusoft 38

Shots Against
Ryan Miller 1982
Miikka Kiprusoft 2006

Ryan Miller 2.64
Miikka Kiprusoft 2.66

Ryan Miller .908
Miikka Kiprusoft .907

So based on these numbers Ryan has a case hes as good as Miikka Kiprusoft. Who probably has a better team around him this year. And looking at his contract, Yikes!. 8 Million a year for the next 3 years, the 6, 3.5, 1.5 in the following years. So total, 35 Million over 6 years. The career numbers are better for Kiprusoft, regular season and playoffs. But Ryan Miller is 4 years younger. So once again, the money is gonna probably be even.

I could go all day comparing and contrasting. But the Kiprusoft contract looks to me as the benchmark. 6 years for 35 million. I would offer initially 5 years for 29 million. 7.5 Million, 7.5 Million, 7 Million, 3.5 Million, 3.5 Million. Show you want to pay him now, and if things turn out well you get a steal come 4 years from now, when you have to start paying your new stars. If he wants seven, no, six maybe. Ryan Miller is a good goaltender. They are tough to find. And in 4 years, if Enroth is ready. You don't have hard contract to get rid of. But what do I know. Im a lowly blogger. But I hope they sign him.

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A Stay at home dad, who has more hot takes then your average stay at home dad.